France and Italy push the EU to restrict imports of chemical plastics: Germany's attitude is relaxed, China's overcapacity pressure approaches new defense lines

Europe’s defense of China’s industrial capacity is spreading from electric vehicles and steel to a wider range of basic chemicals.Reuters quoted sources on September 10 as saying that France and Italy are pushing for EU safeguards for certain chemical and plastic products, and Germany is likely to support them, and discuss products involving PET, oxide resin and glass fiber.If the alliance eventually forms, it means that Europe’s response to rising imports is shifting from country-by-country, product-by-product anti-dumping investigations to industrial protection tools that can cover a wider range of products.

The breakthrough point is not in France, but whether it joins in Germany

France and Italy have long advocated that the EU should take more proactive defence measures against global industrial surplus capacity. This time the political arithmetic has really changed, and the attitude of Germany has relaxed. Germany has one of Europe’s largest chemical industries and is also a member of a country that relies heavily on exports and Chinese markets, so in the past it has often been more cautious than Paris on trade restrictions with China.

According to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the discussions, France, Italy and Germany, which are likely to join, are hoping to boost safeguards against imports of chemicals and plastics. If the three countries form a common stance, it will not only increase a German vote in favour, but will reassemble the former differences between “protecting industry” and “preserving open trade” within the EU.

The pressure faced by the industrialization of Europe comes not only from imports, but also from energy prices, weak demand, investment costs and global production capacity pressures the European production base. Basf is one of the representatives of the scale and density of the European chemical industry; any changes in the structure of imports of basic chemicals will continue along the automotive, building, coatings, plastics and new energy supply chains.

The “guarantees” are wider than anti-dumping: there is no need to first prove that Chinese companies are dumping

The Commission’s official statement on safeguard measures clearly states:The core of the initiation of safeguards is not to prove that there is unfair trade in a particular exporting country, but to prove that imports have increased significantly and have caused or threatened to cause serious damage to the EU industry.

The Commission describes safeguards as a tool to give the impacted industry “temporary breathing space” to adapt to the new competitive environment following increased imports.

This distinction is crucial.Anti-dumping is typically targeted at specific countries and enterprises and requires an investigation into whether prices are below normal value; safeguards are in principle targeted at imports from all sources, and can take the form of tariff quotas, additional tariffs, minimum import prices or quantitative restrictions.

Thus, even if this round of political push is primarily driven by concerns about China’s industrial overcapacity, the final legal measure may not simply be written as “restricting only China.” Its political target may be China, but its legal design may cover global imports. This also means that European downstream companies and other trading partners may be equally likely to bear costs.

* Chinese factors have written into the logic of "import monitoring" in Europe

In July this year, the European Commission upgraded the "import rainy clock"The current pressure facing Europe is shifting from trade due to tariffs to long-term import growth driven by global industrial surplus capacity.The Commission noted in particular that such surplus capacity is often driven by national policies and support measures and could impact European industrial production.

There have been several rounds of trade defense operations against China in the chemical industry.EU imposes anti-dumping duties on oxygen resins from China, Taiwan and Thailand in July 2025In China, the tax rate is 17.3% to 33%.In June 2026, the European Union imposed a definitive anti-dumping duty on 1.4 tin diol from China, Saudi Arabia and the United States.The relevant tax rate in China reached 105.6% to 113.7%.

These cases show that Europe did not suddenly discover the issue of chemical imports in September. The new change is that member states have begun to discuss whether to raise the industrial pressure behind a single anti-dumping case to a wider range of safeguards.

From electric vehicles to chemicals, Europe is redefining the boundaries of “economic security”

Germany’s caution over tariffs on electric vehicles in China has reflected the deep dependence of its automotive industry on the Chinese market, but the chemical industry is different: Europe needs cheap raw materials to maintain downstream competitiveness and fears that domestic base capacity continues to withdraw under the double pressure of energy costs and imports.

This creates an inevitable policy contradiction: restricting imports could give more price and capacity space to European producers, but could raise investment costs for the automotive, construction, packaging, wind and other downstream industries; continuing to remain fully open could further undermine domestic basic chemical capacity.

The safeguards, therefore, are not just a trade dispute, but Europe’s answer to a larger industrial policy question: which basic industrial capabilities must remain in Europe, even if they require higher costs?

The real point of observation is whether the three countries can turn the political will into a majority in the EU.

The current discussion is still in the state phase and does not mean that the EU has decided to impose new import restrictions on PETs, oxide resins or glass fibers.In accordance with EU rules, the Commission needs to initiate an investigation based on evidence to prove the increase in imports, the threat of serious damage or damage and the causal relationship; the final measure also requires a qualified majority of the Member States.

There are at least four nodes worth tracking:

• whether Germany formally joined the French and Italian camp;
• whether the European Commission received a formal request from a member state and launched a safeguard investigation;
• whether the product scope actually covered a minority of chemicals, or extended to larger categories of plastics and basic materials;
• how the EU dealt with the contradiction between the political targets and safeguards against China's overcapacity that are in principle applicable to global imports.

When member states begin to consider safeguards to protect basic chemical capabilities, the dispute has already been dumped from a certain Chinese company, pushing to how much Europe is willing to exchange for domestic industrial survival space at the expense of trade. Germany will ultimately stand on which side, will decide whether this new defense line can really form.