Japan's Defense White Paper 2026 lists China as its biggest strategic challenge

On August 4, the Japanese government issued the Defense White Paper for 2026, which continues to position China’s foreign gestures and military activities as Japan and the international community’s “greatest strategic challenge unprecedented”.The document puts China’s military activities in the Taiwan Strait, the East Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean within the same security framework with Japan’s advancing long-range missiles, unmanned combat, defense industry expansion and allied cooperation.

The White Paper uses the name "China" for the country, but its discussed military expansion, military pressure on Taiwan and regional actions are all led by the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the Central Military Commission under Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping at the same time holds the post of General Secretary of the Communist Party and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, China's military modernization, Taiwan policy and military preparation are all included in the political goals of the highest leadership of the Communist Party.

The Taiwan Strait is at the centre of the White Paper risk judgment on China. Japan believes that China continues to increase its military activity around Taiwan, and the balance of military power is rapidly inclined towards Beijing. Taiwan is only a hundred kilometers from the westernmost island of Japan, and once a military crisis occurs in the Taiwan Sea, Japan's southwestern islands, U.S. military bases in Japan, maritime transport lines and energy channels can be directly hit. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshida Yoshima has previously said that if China takes military action on Taiwan and threatens Japan's security, the self-defense forces may act according to Japanese law, this statement has sparked strong protest in Beijing.

The East Sea is the region with the highest risk of direct sea-air friction between Japan and China. China's naval police ships, warships and military aircraft have long been active on the island and surrounding waters, and Japan has in recent years continued to strengthen the missile, air defense and surveillance capabilities of Okinawa,宫古,石垣 and other southwestern islands such as that country.

The White Paper also extends its sights to the Western Pacific. China’s aircraft carrier crew, long-haul training and the Air Force’s ability to break through the first island chain have become important elements of Japan’s security assessment. Faced with China’s military expansion toward the Pacific, Japan is deepening its military cooperation with the United States, Australia and the Philippines, strengthening intelligence sharing, joint exercises, logistical support and equipment synergies. Japan’s defense layout is expanding from its own borders to regional security networks that rely on allies.

The construction of equipment is the most realistic part of the White Paper. Japan plans to continue to develop long-range missiles, artificial intelligence, drones, unmanned vessels and coastal defense systems, and to expand ammunition reserves, maintenance safeguards and ongoing combat capabilities. The Defense Ministry has included a large amount of experience in the use of unmanned systems in the battlefields of Ukraine and the Middle East, hoping to compensate for the shortage of soldiers through artificial intelligence and low-cost unmanned equipment, and to enhance the island defense and long-range strike capabilities.

The Japanese government has also raised the defense industry to the economic and national strategic levels. The White Paper encourages start-ups and civil-tech companies to enter the weapons research and development system, increase the use of commercial components in military-industrial production, and continue to ease arms export restrictions. The Japanese government describes defense investment as an integral part of driving technological innovation and economic growth, Japanese defense spending has risen to about 2% of GDP, and the government is also preparing to revise the national security strategy to further increase long-range missile and unmanned weapons investment.

The corresponding conflict position of the deployment is clear: the Taiwan Strait is the core direction in which the Chinese Communist Party may change the status quo by force; the East China Sea and the Southwest Japanese islands are the front lines with the most likely direct friction to occur in China; and the Western Pacific is determining whether China’s naval air force can break through the island chain and expand offshore operations.

China's Foreign Ministry issued a White Paper to Japan on August 5, accusing Tokyo of exaggerating China's threat, interfering with Taiwan, and asking Japan to stop expanding its armed forces.The Chinese Ministry of Defense also called the White Paper "filled with false narratives" and criticized Japan's "re-militarization".Beijing's public response mainly focused on Taiwan's sovereignty, historical issues and Japan's military policy, but Japan's White Paper listed Chinese aircraft carrier activities, Taiwan Navy exercises, national defense budget growth and expansion of remote sea capabilities will continue to be the basis for Tokyo's security policy adjustment.

The 2026 White Paper marks that Japan’s security judgment of the Xi Jinping regime has entered the institutionalized phase. China is listed as the biggest strategic challenge, not just an annual assessment, but is written into Japan’s military expenditure growth, weapons development, the deployment of the Southwest Islands, the Japan-U.S. alliance and regional military-industrial cooperation. When a major military crisis occurs in East Asia in the future, Japan’s position is also more clear: it will be at the forefront of the conflict between the Taiwan Sea and the East Sea, and rely on the military forces of the United States and regional partners to jointly cope with the continued expansion of the Xi Jinping regime.

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