Taiwan's defense department released its annual security assessment on August 31, saying China continued to strengthen its maritime and air activities around Taiwan and enhanced its ability to cut off Taiwan's external traffic and command systems at the beginning of the conflict through joint blockade and air control.Reuters on August 31.At the same time, the Taiwan side believes that Beijing still does not have the conditions for easy implementation of a comprehensive invasion of the two sides.

This assessment reflects structural changes in military pressure in the Taiwan Sea: Compared to a single large-scale military exercise, continued military aircraft, naval activities and inter-military synergies are more likely to normalize high-intensity operations and compress Taiwan's early warning and judgment space.

The report also mentions that China’s high-ranking military has increased decision-making uncertainty.The Taiwan Defense Department believes that Beijing is studying its drone, long-range strike, logistics and command experience in the Russian-Ukrainian war and the conflict in the Middle East, and is incorporating the lessons in its military preparation.

It should be clarified that the Taiwan Defense Report is a security assessment by one-party governments, not a final independent ruling on China’s military capabilities.Beijing has long insisted on sovereignty over Taiwan and opposed U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; the Taiwan government has rejected Beijing’s claim to sovereignty, stressing that Taiwan’s future should be decided by the local people.

The U.S. continues to supply weapons to Taiwan andins informal relations, while the U.S.-China competition in semiconductor, trade and military communications makes Taiwan Sea risks not only a cross-strait issue, but also directly linked to regional allies, supply chains and global technology industry security.

What really is worth considering is not whether a particular military exercise means that war is imminent, but whether Beijing is turning the crisis into a new normal through continued maritime and air activities.

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