If conflict breaks out in Taiwan Sea, it will seriously damage the global economy, AIT chief warns the US-China summit must avoid misjudgment

The key word at the Taipei scene is not “war”, but “don’t let misjudgment push the parties to war.”According to Reuters.On the 9th of the Taipei Security Dialogue 2026 in Taipei, U.S. Secretary-Governor of the Taiwan Association warned that if there is a conflict in Taipei, the cost of people and the global economy will be extremely serious; at the same time, he saw the upcoming meeting of U.S.-China leaders as an opportunity to reduce misunderstandings.

The voice at the scene: The goal is to prevent conflict from occurring

Google summarized U.S. policy as three parallel trajectories:ining high-level diplomatic communication, strengthening Indo-Pacific partnership and presence, and supporting Taiwan to enhance its self-defense capabilities.

Avoiding misjudgment is more difficult to quantify than simply increasing military power, but it may be the most important element in crisis management.

Taiwan's shift from arms to social resilience

Vice President Xi Jinping said that Taiwan needs to strengthen its defence and social resilience in order to safeguard peace and the freedom of the Taiwanese people to decide their future.

Map of Risk

Once there is a crisis in the Taiwan Sea, the shock will not stop in the military sphere:

• Shipping insurance and commercial routes may be re-priced first;
• advanced semiconductor supply expectations may deteriorate rapidly;
• U.S. and regional allies face military and diplomatic options;
• Global capital markets may begin to evade before the actual shooting.

The unified narrative on the side of Beijing has not changed

The Chinese government reiterated its official stance on the so-called "unification of the motherland".Beijing has never given up on the option of using force against Taiwan; the Taiwanese government has rejected Beijing's claims for sovereignty.

Can the Summit be a pressure reduction valve

Goal’s speech presents a deliberate two-way structure: one hand to strengthen deterrence and one hand to retain the leader’s diplomacy. The real test is not whether the summit will be held, but whether there are signs of observable warming after the summit, military activity, crisis hotlines and public discourse.